A study report put together for Kishore Biyani’s Future Capital Research and National Council of Applied Economic Research’s (NCAER), has identified 20 top Indian cities, which though accounting for only 10% of the country’s population, will generate as much as 60% of its surplus income and 31% of its disposable income. The authors have classified these 20 large cities, which accounted for nearly $100-billion of consumption expenditure in 2007-08, in three groups comprising;
Megacities (8) – Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Pune
Boomtowns (7) – Surat, Kanpur, Jaipur, Lucknow, Nagpur, Bhopal and Coimbatore.
Niche Cities (5) – Faridabad, Amritsar, Ludhiana, Chandigarh and Jalandhar.
- These 20 cities despite impending economic slowdown, for the next eight years (2008-2016), will grow at a healthy rate of 10.1% per annum, compared to other cities growing at 7.9% per annum. In the past three years (2005-08), the top 20 have registered a growth of 11.2% per annum.
- In the next eight years by 2016, while, the share of middle-income household ($6,000 to $30,000 per annum) in these twenty cities will increase from current 39% to 55%, the share of high-income households (more than $30,000 per annum) will increase three-fold to 13%. The share of very low-income households (below $3,000 per annum)not surprisingly, would come down by half from 16% now to 7% by 2016.
- There is a 52% increase in spending as households graduate from low-income to middle class segment. The demand for the durables, for example, may go up by a substantial 84%, says the study.
- In the next 40-odd years by 2050, share of the urban population in India will almost become equal (45%) to that of the rural population (55%). Currently, the ratio is 30:70 in favour of the rural population. This rapid urbanisation will mean an additional 379-million people in urban India.
So what does this mean for the coimbatore. It is going to be a very strong player in the economy of TN. The industries , including IT, will be moving from Chennai / Bangalore to CBE which will trigger an avalanche of retailers, consumer products (including auto dealers, banks, insurance, thrifts ) and therefore housing and real estate.
So we need a better and bigger airport, infrastructure for roads, railways, telecommunications, law and order, general public infrastructure ( like water , sanitation etc.)
Is it a tall order to ask this , given the magnitude of change predicted. ?